Will the Libyan Conflict Make NATO Better at What it Does?

Although it is not yet over, the NATO-led campaign in Libya is drawing to a close and interest will now grow in post-intervention reviews that look for ‘lessons learned’. In theory, by identifying mistakes that were made, factors that shaped operations and successful activities or decisions, NATO might enhance its performance in future conflicts. In practice, things are not so straightforward.

 

A Royal Air Force Typhoon pilot enters the cockpit as the sun sets over Gioia del Colle,

southern Italy. Image: Crown Copyright/MOD 2011

 

First, in an intervention lasting 6 months there is much activity and information to consider so examination of the campaign must be discriminating. Lessons are not merely observations of events, or diary records that suit official histories, but opportunities for learning. Lessons should educate and therefore teach NATO how to do things better; illustrate relevant constraints and capture the benefit of experience. Without discrimination it is likely that valuable lessons would be missed amongst a sea of distracting details and irrelevant information.    

Second, a criticism of western militaries is that they routinely prepare to re-fight the last war in which they were involved. This problem creates difficulties when assessing what lessons should be taken from a conflict as their future validity may rest on the specific characteristics of a subsequent conflict. The key is, therefore, to capture all perceived lessons but to be wise in their potential application. This wisdom is particularly important when lessons suggest action should be taken immediately (for example in defence procurement), and in later conflicts when success may be determined by choosing valid lessons and rejecting irrelevant ones.

Finally, capturing lessons is made more difficult in a coalition context where criticism of specific participants may create friction within the coalition and the need for unity may prove an obstacle to candid assessment. Similarly, even when the lessons-learned process is carried out with candour, in an alliance there is no guarantee that criticised allies will acknowledge any fault and implement consequent changes or that lessons with common application will be accepted and acted upon by all relevant parties.

The Libyan crisis will provide NATO with opportunities to learn lessons for future benefit. Identifying those lessons will require careful discrimination, candour and tact. How well those lessons may be assimilated and practically applied is dependent on the balance of power between individual alliance members and NATO as a bloc, but whatever influence the Libyan campaign may exert on future operations, NATO must avoid the trap of preparing for the last war.

 

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