The Great Falklands Myth: The Penn is mightier than the sword

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By Robert Knapp

As the 30^th anniversary of the Falklands War arrives over the horizon like a rather fearsome storm cloud, the media hysteria in both countries is slowly building to a fever pitch. The British media, going through a periodic bout of jingoism, is awash with scaremongering over the state of the island’s defences; while the Argentine media is dominated by heated debate about the ‘militarisation’ of the islands and British imperialism. As this author has already discussed, the frequent articles released by men such as Admiral Sandy Woodward warning of the immense military vulnerability of the islands have very little grounding in reality. The military balance in the South Atlantic is very strongly rooted in the favour of the UK and this is unlikely to change in the near future. Of arguably much greater significance to the Falklands debate are the political and economic factors that dominate the current tensions. As will be shown there is neither the political will nor the economic capability for Argentina to attempt any kind of military action against the islands.

In recent months Argentina’s president Cristina Fernández has been making increasingly provocative statements about British control of the Falkland Islands. These have included accusing Britain of deploying a nuclear attack submarine to the region and that Prince William’s long scheduled deployment to the islands are acts that risk ‘militarising’ the South Atlantic. The timing of these calls are far from shocking to any observers of the decades-long tensions in the region; the impending 30^th anniversary of the conflict on the 2^nd April will undoubtedly cause tensions to rise.

These calls have been supported by diplomatic manoeuvrings by Argentina to try and isolate the islands from contact with the outside world. The chief targets being the docking rights in South America for Falkland Islands-flagged merchant ships and the current air-link between Chile and the islands. On 20^th December Fernández managed to persuade the Mercosur trade block (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay) to ban vessels flying the Falklands flag from docking in their ports. This move is of much greater symbolic value than its actual economic effects as there are only a small number of Falkland’s flagged vessels and the restrictions do not apply to British merchant ships, which make up a much greater number of vessels that supply the islands. These moves followed the unilateral decision in 2010 by Argentina to require any ships travelling between the islands and the mainland to receive prior permission. The diplomatic moves against the British position in the South Atlantic have so far culminated in resolution by the 33-country Community of Latin American and Caribbean States to give full support to Argentina over the sovereignty debate. While these moves have attracted a great deal of press coverage and have led to President Fernández receiving much positive coverage in Argentina they are likely to amount to the full extent of what Argentina can achieve.

The Argentine economy, while going through a period of sustained economic growth following its default of 2001, is currently suffering from inflation running at over 9% (unofficial sources place it at nearly 22%) and its continuing blacklisting by many global institutions due to outstanding debts from the default. These two issues and the wider problem of increasingly contracting growth forecasts mean that the Argentine economy is in a far from healthy state and the current sabre-rattling over the islands serve as a good distraction to these issues. Not only this, but the weak position of the economy prevent any thought of significantly greater levels of military spending which currently amounts to only $5 billion dollars. To be in a position to militarily threaten the islands Argentina would need to greatly expand this budget and this is unlikely to occur in the near future.

Not only is the Argentine economy in no fit state to support military operations against the island; the political will is very much lacking. As much as President Fernández and celebrity supporters like Sean Penn call for renewed sovereignty talks over the future status of the islands there is little that can be done to force the UK to agree to them. The option of using military force to seize the islands is dismissed by most Argentines as there is little wish for another war and there is widespread recognition that the armed forces are not capable of taking them. David Cameron and his government have repeated the decade’s long commitment that the islands have the right to self-determination and as long as the islanders wish to remain British they will be supported by the government. This is a situation which is unlikely to change, particularly because the highly jingoistic tone of debate in which the Conservative-supporting press and the vast majority of Tory backbenchers are strongly committed to the protection of the islands – even through military force. While the winds of global opinion are undoubtedly behind Argentina with even the US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, calling in 2010 for talks over the future of the islands the commitment of the UK government to their defence seems unwavering.

Argentina’s next likely aim will be to try and force Chile to cut the current weekly air-link between the islands and Santiago. While Chile’s Foreign Affairs minister Alfredo Moreno has been quoted as saying, ‘no talks have taken place, or a request or questioning by Argentina regarding the air-link’, it is highly likely that Argentina will push to make it increasingly hard to run these flights – the only regular contact with the mainland. The likely effect of a shutdown of the flights has been much debated, with some arguing that it would be little more than a nuisance and others saying that it would have a significant economic effect to the tourism and infant oil industry. At the same time British diplomats are spending an increasing amount of time and energy pushing the case for the continued legitimacy of British sovereignty over the islands – this will undoubtedly include forceful behind the scenes lobbying of Chile to maintain the airlink.

Tension over the Falkland Islands shows little sign of abating, even though nearly 30 years have passed since the end of the conflict. The intransigence of both sides in regards to the sovereignty issue leaves little room for discussion over the future of the Falklands and the current situation of deadlock if likely to remain for the indefinite future. With the British government seemingly fully committed to the protection of the islands sovereignty there is little that Argentina can do other than keep pushing the diplomatic levers in South America to try to increase their economic isolation. However, the recent discovery of possibly significant oil reserves is likely to lead to a greater pressure for cooperation between the two islands, as Argentina would be the most logical partner to assist in the exploitation and refining of these reserves. The chances of this occurring will depend on a changing of the currently poisonous tone of the debate and this is something that looks unlikely to happen.

Contributor:   Defence Dateline Group

Defence Dateline Group

Internal UK and European defence analytics

For military decision makers, industry stakeholders and the fighting men and women of Europe, understanding the state of European defence is a top priority. In this regular column, the Defence Dateline Group will explore Europe’s defence dilemmas: asking the tough questions, shining a light on the biggest issues and providing you with the “food for thought” you need to tackle the challenges ahead.

The Group

Tom Wein – Editor

Tom is a defence industry and strategy analyst with experience in the Middle East and strategic communications. He has worked as a project manager for Strategic Communication Laboratories, and published numerous policy papers and articles.

Robert Knapp – Columnist

Robert is a regular foreign affairs and defence contributor to BN magazine, with his principal areas of focus being naval strategy, European defence procurement and 20th century maritime history.

Laurence Conneely – Columnist

Laurence is currently studying for an MSc in Violence, Conflict & Development at the School of Oriental and African studies, with a particular focus on contested governance, geopolitics and insurgent & separatist movements across the Indian Subcontinent, the Caucasus and the Middle East.

David Moroz – Columnist

David is a former RAF reservist and War Studies graduate. His areas of interest include air power, British defence policy and the Second World War in Europe.

You can contact Defence Dateline Group and its members here.

Report Abuse   bdrservices09 02/21/2012 11:14:46 PM EST Excellent piece. Clearly, the Argentine Government is trying very hard to divert its peoples' attention from the real issues that Argentina must deal with. Given what happen almost 30 years ago, the UK should not ignore the Argentines but it should be made quite clear that as far as the UK is concerned that the integrity of the Falkans is not negotiable. Sean Penn is a bit tedious at times, this is one of them, but on the whole he's not a bad fellow. Keep up the good work. Thank you. Replies (0) Post a reply Sign in or Sign up to post a comment

Report Abuse   peter.morris 02/21/2012 10:33:53 AM EST A useful and informative article that has helped me to understand the relative strengths and issues in this story. It seems to me that the Argentine government is missing the point, they should be doing all they can to inspire the population that changing their allegiance is beneficial. Stopping flights, constraining tourism and other petty measures will do nothing to change the attitudes of a tough and independently minded people. A lot more carrot and no stick will work much more effectively then bullying. Replies (0) Post a reply Sign in or Sign up to post a comment

Report Abuse   lconneely 02/17/2012 5:30:58 AM EST Great and incisive article! I particularly enjoyed the Penn Pun. Replies (0) Post a reply Sign in or Sign up to post a comment