Singapore Port Terror Attack Could Be Worse than Lehman’s Collapse

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Anthony Davis, author of the bestselling book Terrorism and the Maritime Transportation System speaks exclusively to Defence IQ’s Bryan Camoens on the economic impact of a terrorist attack on Singapore’s port. Davis is the Founder of the Homeland Security Group and publisher of the Homeland Security Reports, which is read worldwide by the law enforcement, intelligence, security and emergency management communities. Terrorism and the Maritime Transportation System made it to the bestseller list for 60-weeks straight.

How much economic damage could Maritime terrorism inflict?

Maritime Transportation System and how our maritime commerce is interlinked through a network of transportation methods be it ship, rail, truck, pipelines, highway systems, etc. If an attack takes one of those out (or even impedes it for a period), there is an impact to commerce. When a terrorist attack occurs confidence wanes. A maritime terrorist attack influences the flow of food, manufacturing and jobs. For some nations, the loss of their commerce can change the balance of power in the region.

Unlike September 11th or the Madrid and London bombings, what impact could a terrorist attack along the Malacca Strait have on the global economy?

In the Malacca Strait, there are an estimated 50,000 cargo vessels transiting that region each year. In fact the U.S. Energy Information Administration describes it as a “World Oil Chokepoint” moving approximately 15 million barrels of oil through the straits each day. Compare that amount with the Exxon Valdez spill in March of 1989. That ship spilled somewhere around 240,000 barrels of oil and it took over six months to clean up. I was on the scene of that mess just days after it happened. I can tell you than given the larger vessels in service today, it opens the door for environmental and economic tragedy. Also, bear in mind that there are some vessels out there still operating with single hulls since they are not required until 2015.

A single incident that would cause a major spill would shut that important transit area down. The result would be trade and production losses throughout South East Asia.

How could the global economy be affected by a September 11th scenario on major Asian ports such a Singapore, Shanghai and Hong Kong?

Over the years we have developed a global community that relies on the successful manufacturing and exports to support our commerce. Other countries rely on our exports to support their economy. I’m not naming countries here…pick any nation with a reliable import/export base. An impact to one impacts the rest of the global economy. The ports you noted are all vital not only to their own region but the rest of the world. With terrorism expanding throughout South East Asia, a possibility of an attack there is increasing.

The economy is picking up and trade in increasing, should a terrorist attack occur on a major port like the port of Singapore, would it be even worse than the collapse of Lehman's?

While I don’t purport to be an economic expert on Singapore, I will say that the Port of Singapore is one of the most active ports in the world regarding the throughput of cargo. I believe the Port of Singapore generally handles somewhere near 20 percent of global maritime containers. Given that, and what I’ve said earlier, an attack there could be problematic to the entire globe. Certainly the Lehman Brothers collapse caused financial tragedy that will have impact for years to come. My guess is that the impact from a terror attack on a port like Singapore will have immediate results to global trade.

Going forward what sort of a role will technology play in seaport security, what best practices have you seen?

I believe technology will be important in the future for seaport security. Yet, we can't allow ourselves to rely upon technology alone. As for best practices, there have been some proactive measures regarding biometrics to validate the identity of those working at port facilities and onboard vessels. In the U.S. after the 9/11 attacks, some port professionals came together and formed harbor safety committees to work with law enforcement and Coast Guard personnel. They are familiar with the area and when something seems odd, they are the ones capable of reporting it. Additionally, regulations were updated or newly enacted to require standardized security procedures at port facilities.
 

Contributor: Anthony Davis

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