Will the Taliban break from Al-Qa'ida, announce a ceasefire, and allow the US to remain in Afghanistan?

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The Taliban could be ready to make a clean break from Al-Qa’ida as it seeks to resolve the long-term stability in Afghanistan, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

The report, ‘Taliban Perspectives on Reconciliation’, is based on interviews with four key players in the Taliban, which includes a former minister and mujahedeen commander. It is centred around the organisation's links to Al-Qa’ida and addresses the issues of a potential ceasefire and the continued presence of US bases in the country.

“No Taliban leader has publicly endorsed the idea of a ceasefire,” says the report. “However, the interviewees considered it plausible that the Taliban would support a ceasefire in the right circumstances.”

The “right” circumstances include it having a “a strong Islamic justification” that has the full backing of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar. Essentially, there can be no hint of a “surrender.”

“The Taliban leadership and base deeply regret their past association with Al-Qa’ida,” the report says. “Once a general ceasefire and/or political agreement are decided, the base would obey a call by Mullah Mohammad Omar – and only him – to completely renounce Al-Qa’ida.”

One of the more significant points to come out of the report suggests the Taliban is willing to accept a long-term US presence in the country “as long as they do not constrain Afghan independence and Islamic jurisprudence. In time, military presence could be transformed into mainly economic assistance.”

A condition of this presence would be on the understanding that the US did not attack Iran or Pakistan from any of its Afghan bases, which includes strikes from UAVs.

In addition, the US-backed Hamid Karzai government must be dissolved or renounced.

“The Taliban will not negotiate with President Karzai or his administration, which is seen as corrupt and weak,” the report says.

While a number of encouraging themes emerge from the report, which includes the possibility of a ceasefire, there appears to be little desire to move towards a more inclusive, equal society since it was made clear that the co-education of men and women “will not be tolerated.”

A number of other issues are discussed in the 15 page report, which in its entirety gives an excellent insight into the machinations of the Taliban as it is today; it’s well worth a read.

What do you think? Does the report resonate with what you think about the Taliban or does it only deal with part of the issue based on the views of a minority within the organisation? Send in your comments or write an article for Defence IQ in response: email haveyoursay@defenceiq.comor andrew.elwell@iqpc.co.uk