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Opinion: After the Demise of Gaddafi

Contributor:  Neil Waghorn
Posted:  10/20/2011  12:00:00 AM EDT  |  0

Rate this Article: (3.0 Stars | 2 Votes)

Tags:   Gaddafi | Libya | Arab Spring

The news that Muammar Gaddafi has been killed has spread throughout the world. In these immediate hours, there remain unanswered questions regarding the exact circumstances of his death, with initial reports claiming that he had been captured alive. If Gaddafi was killed, or in fact executed, whilst in NTC custody, it may cause some international embarrassment for the NTC, however brief. Whatever the exact details surrounding the demise of Muammar Gaddafi, the opportunity arises to asses what his death means for Libya and for the wider region.

The primary impact of the death of Gaddafi is the loss of a strong figurehead for any potential insurgency. His death may convince his supporters that his rule is now over and help speed a return to normality. The problem remains however, that Gaddafi’s eldest son, Saif al-Islam, still remains at large. Following the death of his father, Saif al-Islam may be able to urge his supporters to wage its own insurgency. Alternatively, he may now follow the rest of his family into exile. His choice of country though may be limited, due to an outstanding ICC warrant for his arrest.


The fall of Sirte and the death of Gaddafi mark the end of an era.

We have of course been spared a drawn out extradition and trial at The Hague. With the ICC having a poor reputation for success, the absence of a captive war criminal prevents an opportunity for a high profile ICC prosecution. Had Gaddafi been captured alive, there was no absolute guarantee that he would have been sent to The Hague. Libya may have followed the actions of its neighbours and put their former leader on trial. A trial in Libya may have helped the Libyan people unite and finally draw a line under the rule of Gaddafi. This would have been a difficult trial to arrange and ensure that it appeared to the international community to be open and fair. Gaddafi’s fate prevents this potentially awkward situation.  
 

The violent uprising and eventual killing of Gaddafi by his people marks a new precedent in the Arab Spring. If he had been arrested , foreign state leaders could have drawn direct parallels with Tunisia and Egypt, but his out of hand killing may instead strike a chilling warning to other leaders. Whether it will make them institute reform, voluntarily step down… or even spur them to successfully crush their own protests, only time will tell. It could be very interesting to see if the successful end to the Arab Spring in Libya triggers increasingly violent uprisings where peaceful protests have succeeded. Oppressed people across Africa and the Middle East may look to the killing of one of the most famous and longest ruling leaders as an example of what can be achieved.

The final chapter of Gaddafi is likely to also spell the end of the NATO operation there. Whilst the campaign has had its negative aspects, with it being accused of overstepping the UN mandate, the ultimate success of the operation may have an interesting impact on the willingness to intervene militarily in the future. Proponents of the strength of airpower will likely begin citing the Libyan campaign alongside Kosovo and the Gulf War.


Neil Waghorn Contributor:   Neil Waghorn

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