Defence Dateline’s 2011 Sign Off - Final Word

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A note from Defence Dateline Lead Columnist, Jonathan Dowdall

When Defence Dateline was formed 12 months ago, we all had a fairly clear idea of what kind of topics and themes the coming year would throw up. The controversies surrounding the implementation of the UK’s SDSR, the head for the exit in Afghanistan and the drastically shrinking European defence budgets enforced by the economic crisis were certainly top of the list.

Yet as 2011 draws to a close, it’s interesting to reflect on where the year has ended up taking us. The biggest surprise of course was Libya, which as of today is being chalked up as a new example of a successful, low-cost airpower intervention. Yet this operation, and the wider upheaval of the Arab Spring, has also questioned some core assumptions about the political future of the Arab world. Moreover, some European states have had their arms sales record in the region called to account - a warning about blindly seeking easy sales in “buoyant” markets. 

Elsewhere, the death of Osama Bin Laden almost a decade after the terrorist attack that made him a household name re-opened the widely marginalized “war on terror” debate. And as the US and EU stare down the affects of the global fiscal meltdown, the newest acronym group on the scene, the BRICs, have highlighted some potentially world changing trends to keep your eye on.

Bearing this unpredictable track record in mind, Defence Dateline would like you, our readers, to take any and all predictions of what 2012 has in store with a pinch of salt. That being said, our columnists have nonetheless opined some global trends, regions and security policy areas they think will be making the headlines in the coming year.

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Gary Grewal - Guest Columnist

2011 brought the birth of the world’s newest state, but it has been one fraught with complications. The underlying causes of cross-border conflict in South Sudan are yet to be treated, and without which the diagnosis for 2012 is bleak. A return to pre-election violence is palpable in Kenya and a similar picture can be painted in Ghana.

Beyond East African shores, pirate activity is likely to persist in its growth, with a notable reduction in the maritime forces sent to deal with the scourge. Somalia is renowned for its impediments to successful intervention as reportedly game-changing victories over Al Shabaab have quickly become stagnant. Taking ground may be difficult, but keeping it appears to be the real trick.

To the north, Egypt needs to travel beyond pageant-show reforms to turn its “spring” into summer whilst neighbouring Libya’s construction of an economy that is inclusive of its’ restive youth will be a difficult task for the new government. In the shadow of Unified Protector, NATO’s Chicago summit also lies ahead. Cooperation through “Smart Defence” is on the table; with efficiency savings and less revenue for defence industries overall, but what’s new? Chicago looks unlikely to bring about the changes in direction that its predecessor did. All the while, the debate on missile defence will rage on and Putin’s likely return to power will bring further escalatory actions from the Kremlin.

Capitalising on a state verging on civil war, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is growing in confidence in Yemen, as is its peer in the Islamic Maghreb. With ever constrained options, the Syrian situation lingers on and Iran’s nuclear bomb hastily ticks along, attracting international ire. 2012 is a year Hollywood attributed to a disaster film. The international events that lie before us may be no less dramatic.

Robert Knapp, Columnist

As the War on Terror continues in 2012 the chief focus is going to be the Horn of Africa. 2011 has seen an increasing level of US military engagement in the region. This has ranged from the ongoing counter-terrorism operations off the coast of Somali to the expanding drone war in the south of Yemen. The trend set here is only likely to accelerate with the US increasingly turnings its gaze away from Afghanistan and towards this vital area of the world.

You can expect to see an ever increasing number of drone strikes in Somalia and Yemen as well as more shady reports of US Special Forces operations. Similarly, the deployment of 100 Special Forces personnel to help pursue the Lord’s Resistance Army means that the US now has forces committed to regional countries ranging from Djibouti to Yemen to Uganda. The US is also widely believed to be the main baker for Kenya’s intervention into the south of Somalia and this ongoing operation is likely to lead to increasing reprisal attacks in Kenya itself.

The intensifying anti-terrorist operations are running parallel to the ongoing multinational effort to deal with the depredations of Somali pirates travelling through the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. With the only permanent solution to this problem being a political settlement for Somalia the chances of an improvement in the security situation for shipping remain bleak. The likely to be seen improvements will be a fall in the number of merchant vessels hijacked – this will stem from the increasing skill of escorting warships and the increased self-defensive capabilities available to merchant ships.

Both of these problems will only be solved by a political settlement in Somalia, and with this seeming as far away as ever 2012, looks like another dark year.

Keith Mallon, Columnist

During 2011, both Pakistan’s military and government factions suffered major embarrassments. The tension between these two adds to internal instability, providing succour for the Afghan and TTP insurgencies. At the risk of indulging in intellectual fashions, my fear is that 2012 will only see a worsening of this situation. The necessity to engage Pakistan in any arrangement regarding the extraction of NATO forces from Afghanistan could not be clearer but the military, security, economic and political fault lines within this troubled nation will surely hamper significant progress.

The Arab Spring may have changed the region’s dramatis personae but traditional national rivalries remain constant. The US forces’ departure from Iraq increases Tehran’s strategic reach, as does the stubborn-resilience of the al-Assad regime in Syria. The Arab League and Turkey’s sincere desire to see Assad depart is borne not of a political calculus centred upon human rights, but upon naked self interest.

Whatever the position of Egypt’s new political powers, it will complicate matters further. What Israel will do is still uncertain. By December 2012 we will have a fuller picture, including an update of the costs and complications of the 2003 decision to invade Iraq. The impact upon US/UK and European interests may be unpalatable.

Finally, amidst the self congratulatory back-slapping following the Libyan campaign, the reality of many European militaries being shown to be effectively impotent was largely glossed over. The air campaign would have been a non-starter were it not for the combat service support elements of the US. One might imagine that this would prompt arguments against the neglecting of defence investment throughout the continent.

However the simple fact is that the money isn’t there. Europe is broke and defence investment will continue to suffer in 2012 – very possibly more than it has done to date. Europe’s capacity to represent its interests in an increasingly unstable world may yet be further denigrated from an already low base.

Tom Wein,Columnist

2011 has been a rough year for Europe’s militaries. 2012 will not be fun, but it should at least be more predictable. Defence budgets have been the first target for cuts for two decades now, and with the cuts announced in 2011, the major European militaries have reached the very smallest they can be, without entirely surrendering their global role. In the next year, they will be digesting these cuts, but hopefully little more.

Indeed, the real story in 2012 will be the two biggest military spenders in the world. In the US, defence cuts seem finally to be on the table, with their inclusion in the punitive real terms cuts that are triggered by the failure of the supercommittee on reducing the deficit. When even a Republican Secretary of Defense believes it is time for cuts, then one can be sure that there is plenty of fat to be trimmed.

Meanwhile, China continues to develop its military capabilities. The US’ diplomatic and military focus is shifting accordingly to the Pacific. Economic concerns may dissuade both from explicit confrontation, but tensions will continue and both superpowers will seek to carve out spheres of influence in the Western Pacific, with India acting as a third major player and occasional spoiler.

As to the world’s myriad other conflicts, stasis is more likely than progress. The debilitating stalemate of Israel-Palestine will continue, and in Afghanistan NATO operations will grind on towards a handover of responsibilities. Syria will remain bloody without any real prospect of a mass revolution, and fragile reconstruction will be a hostage to fortune in Cote d’Ivoire, Iraq, Nepal, South Sudan, Sri Lanka and Libya. More progress will be made against Colombia’s FARC, but still less against the Maoist movement in India. In a bleak year, Europe is at least at peace.

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On behalf of the Group, thank you for reading. We look forward to continuing with more of the same in the New Year.

The Defence Dateline Group

Contributor:   Defence Dateline Group

Defence Dateline Group

Internal UK and European defence analytics

For military decision makers, industry stakeholders and the fighting men and women of Europe, understanding the state of European defence is a top priority. In this regular column, the Defence Dateline Group will explore Europe’s defence dilemmas: asking the tough questions, shining a light on the biggest issues and providing you with the “food for thought” you need to tackle the challenges ahead.

The Group

Tom Wein – Editor

Tom is a defence industry and strategy analyst with experience in the Middle East and strategic communications. He has worked as a project manager for Strategic Communication Laboratories, and published numerous policy papers and articles.

Robert Knapp – Columnist

Robert is a regular foreign affairs and defence contributor to BN magazine, with his principal areas of focus being naval strategy, European defence procurement and 20th century maritime history.

Laurence Conneely – Columnist

Laurence is currently studying for an MSc in Violence, Conflict & Development at the School of Oriental and African studies, with a particular focus on contested governance, geopolitics and insurgent & separatist movements across the Indian Subcontinent, the Caucasus and the Middle East.

David Moroz – Columnist

David is a former RAF reservist and War Studies graduate. His areas of interest include air power, British defence policy and the Second World War in Europe.

You can contact Defence Dateline Group and its members here.

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