A Happy New Year for the Spanish Military?

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As most of Europe marked the beginning of 2012 with the usual fireworks and pageantry, in Madrid, a far less welcome New Year’s surprise was being prepared. Under the recently elected leadership of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s government rang in the new year with a €14.9 billion package of tax increases and spending cuts. Yet while in recent months, observers have quailed at the rising cost of borrowing for Italy and Greece, Spain has soldiered on through the financial crisis, winning plaudits for its quiet, conservative approach to debt reduction.

As with all fiscal matters today, these measures are drastically affecting Spanish military forces. However, whilst some ambitious procurement and personnel targets may be missed, Spain should just be able to pull its defence finances into order, and even begin to reinvest from 2015 onwards.

Rock bottom, or increasingly stable?

A glance at Spain’s military accounts paints a mixed picture of Madrid’s defence outlook. On the one hand, in the heavy austerity cuts announced thus far, defence has got off lightly, taking a mere 7% hit in 2011; with a budget totaling just under €8 billion. However, this is only an acknowledgement of previously announced defence spending reductions, which saw the budget shrink by 6.2% between 2009-2010 alone.

What’s worse, when one considers that such savings have been achieved at the cost of a 21,000 reduction in military personnel since 2008, it is hard to argue defence has been spared its share of the burden. 

Yet these totals do not tell the full story. Madrid is working hard to eke out savings without losing capabilities, and its cut regime reflects this. Acknowledging that military numbers are already at a historic low, Spain has opted for a 5% paycut to its forces, in lieu of further mandatory redundancies. Elsewhere, spending changes are equally as targeted. Whilst the procurement budget as whole for 2011 – €771 million – may have shrunk at a slightly higher rate then the baseline budget, the effect has not been universal.

For instance, spending on Leopard II tanks, the frigate fleet and submarine procurement has indeed declined by a hefty 39% since 2009 (to €204 million). Yet meanwhile, the Eurofighter Typhoon programme, under which Spain intends to purchase over 120, has not been affected. Similarly, the budgets for future infantry systems, offshore patrol vessels, various helicopter programmes and dual-use observation satellites are all stable.

Most importantly, Madrid is working to a plan, not cutting on impulse. Under current estimates, investment in the procurement account should return to pre-crisis levels by 2015. Admittedly, this may seem optimistic at a time when public debt as compared to GDP ballooned beyond government targets in 2011. But as opposed to the programmes of some of Europe’s other crisis hit nations, Spain is at least forecasting beyond its pre-crisis estimates, which should help make its accounts increasingly stable 

A firm place in European defence

Of course, recovering a spending deficit is only part of Europe’s current reform challenge. A more pressing concern is what, if anything, Spain intends to achieve with its armed forces. Here, however, Spain seems to have a more concrete plan.

For a start, Spanish defence plans include little in the way of scrapping existing equipment. That means that despite stagnating investment, Spain will remain Europe’s sixth largest airforce, including operating ten preciously rare European air-to-air refueling tankers. It will also continue to operate one of only half a dozen amphibious assault ships and miniature carrier decks in Europe, as the new Juan Carlo I comes to replace the ageing Principe de Asturias aircraft carrier.

Indeed, Spain’s place as an active participant in NATO and EU missions was confirmed last year by the deployment of F-16s, three frigates and an attack submarine off the coast of Libya during Operation Unified Protector. Spain also made its extensive Rota naval base available for NATO allies.

Indeed, 2011 also saw Spain agree to host US ships carrying elements of NATO’s new theatre ballistic missile shield at Rota - a controversial basing move that has drawn the ire of Russian diplomats and praise from European allies. Add Spain’s 1,500 troop commitment to Afghanistan, and whilst modest in size, Madrid is at least dedicated to staying at the heart of European defence efforts for 2012 and beyond.

With plans to raise defence spending in 2015, Spain may fall short on some personnel and procurement targets in the short-term - but the long term prognosisis bright for this mid-sized European power, and its attitude to defence planning surely carries some lessons for the rest of Europe.

Jonathan Dowdall writes for the Defence Dateline Group

Contributor:   Defence Dateline Group

Defence Dateline Group

Internal UK and European defence analytics

For military decision makers, industry stakeholders and the fighting men and women of Europe, understanding the state of European defence is a top priority. In this regular column, the Defence Dateline Group will explore Europe’s defence dilemmas: asking the tough questions, shining a light on the biggest issues and providing you with the “food for thought” you need to tackle the challenges ahead.

The Group

Tom Wein – Editor

Tom is a defence industry and strategy analyst with experience in the Middle East and strategic communications. He has worked as a project manager for Strategic Communication Laboratories, and published numerous policy papers and articles.

Robert Knapp – Columnist

Robert is a regular foreign affairs and defence contributor to BN magazine, with his principal areas of focus being naval strategy, European defence procurement and 20th century maritime history.

Laurence Conneely – Columnist

Laurence is currently studying for an MSc in Violence, Conflict & Development at the School of Oriental and African studies, with a particular focus on contested governance, geopolitics and insurgent & separatist movements across the Indian Subcontinent, the Caucasus and the Middle East.

David Moroz – Columnist

David is a former RAF reservist and War Studies graduate. His areas of interest include air power, British defence policy and the Second World War in Europe.

You can contact Defence Dateline Group and its members here.

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